Although we (me too) keep assuming that nicky has one foot out the door at HRC, let's look at why they may not want to lose him

could it be that HRC (knowing they haven't been supplying nick with the best equipment) may be a little tentative about letting him go, with the knowledge that he might land at Ducati and end up on the same bike as stoner, given that he has (i think) shown, that given a competative bike, he can be competative, and they are not willing to suffer a P.R. disaster like they did with rossi, if nick were to go, and win on a Duc. Not that HRC really cared about their P.R. image after losing rossi, but they might this time given that the U.S. market is a prime market for all manufacturers including Honda.
(now, I'm not claiming some sort of U.S. supremecy here guys)
Interest in GP racing in the states has been increasing dramatically in recent years.
from a P.R. standpoint, the rossi departure (in and of itself, hasn't caused HRC to lose any sleep), but compounded by a hayden loss, and a chance (however small) that he could win an another bike, might be a bit much for honda to take, given their sales figures (which I don't know what they are) in the U.S.

As pointed out by jumkie in another thread, Ducatis desire to beat the japanese at their own game could be another reason they don't want to lose nicky. they don't want to see him go to Ducati and win.
They would then have had two popular riders (not that nicks popularity even approaches that of rossi's) in recent years to defect to other teams and win, thereby leaving the masses to speculate that the titles HRC has won this decade, was indeed due to the rider and not Honda. Now we already know that with rossi, it WAS the rider and not the bike, but the fact that nick one on a Honda, when no one really gave him a shot to win (however you think the win was acquired, in the books it's still a win) may have inflated HRC's ego more than it already was.
If nick were to win on the duc (and I don't mean a championship), even him winning one race and just being competative would be enough for Ducati to garner a larger share of the U.S. market.
now HRC may not be concerned about this but, you can bet that honda corp. is.

now, I've just conjured all this up in my conspiracy theorists mind, so take it for what it's worth

good post, i can see that there might be some truth in that. if nicky won on a duke, then their status in the USA would go up even further, making honda look bad....

Kngarok, good post. I think everything you said makes sense but unfortunately Honda does not operate by the same rules where things make sense. I’ve never understood how they could have let Rossi go. I mean the guy was and is a phoneme, popular, talented, and still headed up (at this point the conversation would end, and one would just walk away shaking their heads in disbelief for their stupidity). The last two years has shown they haven’t exactly learned from their mistakes; (I say this because clearly the 07 bike was intended to bring home a title, but was a bit of a disaster, even for their intended user). Now that Hayden is the subject of much speculation, I really don’t think this is a sobering moment for HRC, even if Honda Marketing Department expressed their concerns.

As far has Ducati increasing their market share, lets look at the numbers for the US market only (I googled it): In 2006 Honda sold (motorcycle sales) 351,000 units, that same year Ducati sold 8,200 units (total). In 2007, on the heels of a MotoGP title with Stoner, they sold a record number 10,000 units. Can you see the reality of market share? Really, I don’t think Honda give a rat’s ass if Ducati win another championship from a market share standpoint. Keep in mind these are just motorcycles figures we are talking about (FYI Honda sold 702,000 US cars just in 06 alone not to mention all the other shit they produce).

So Ducati represents a drop in the bucket to Honda sales. On top of that, the Ducati owner is rather particular. Those interested in a motorcycle usually consider the Jap bikes and decides among them, however, the Italian bike is still considered a unique novelty. I think Honda marketing would be more concerned about Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki before they would even blink to see how Ducati is doing. I say this from a marketing point of view.

Now the racing point of view may be different. But again, if they were that concerned about US market and how its effected by titles, then I think they would have done more to field a championship team against the US Suzuki juggernaut and strangle hold in the AMA. But they have NOT! As a matter of fact, the only guy to have broken the string of 8 Suzuki AMA titles was Nicky Hayden, and we all know how Honda rewarded him at the MotoGP level. Sure they picked him up as a factory rider, but did they expect and equip him to win a title? Despite him being the development rider, he still managed to win a title in MotoGP for them in 06 (something I think they or most did not expect); notwithstanding by this fantastic “surprise”, the very next year he was an afterthought in the designed of a bike that was clearly created for Pedrosa (argue with me all you like, but I believe it to be so and willing to debate it.)

So Kngadrok, you make some great points if we were talking about a normal racing team. I mean look at Yamaha, they just signed Rossi for two more years, and they are not stupid. Honda on the other hand, seems to operate by another set of rules.

great counter point Jum, I should have looked up the #'s B 4 I posted that.
I knew someone smarter than me would debunk my theory

No debunking friend. If it would have been any other manufacturer, your post would surely apply. I just think Honda doesn't think normally.

very true jumkie but also consider the amount of spare parts they will sell for the 10,000 ducati's they sold, that surly will amount to the same value as the hondas sold

Very true.

I have read somewhere that HRC hired Hayden and kept him partly because he is American.
And i have also read and heard the excellent swedish comentators on eurosport say that every manufacturer in moto gp would like to have a successful american in a team,because of the big market there.
I have no idear how HRC are reasoning though,what rider they would want besides the robot.
If Dovizioso keeps doing well the next few races they would probarbly sign him just for winning every thing.Riders,teams,manufacturers championship as they think he has got a style and needs more similar to the robot.Maybe Honda thinks that if they win everything they don't have to have an american because the sport is growing anyway ,by it's own in the US.Just my guess.

Hayden has to go !
I know he was champion in 06.
Hes spent so long now as a nobody, Ive never seen him dominate, apart from laguna, but not anymore.
I love Nicky Hayden and hopes he stays in MotoGP but really do Honda want a nowhere man on there best bike ???
In think Dovi will get the nod.
Hope he gets a shot on the ducati, also i hope it works for him or hes real fucked !

Very true! The plan was to have the title shift, from one end of the garage to the other. Problem is, Ducati happened.








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I can't see Nicky taking a Satellite ride, maybe the factory team will run a 3rd bike with one of Nickys Sponsors... like Rossi in 2000.

That worked only because it was Rossi and Honda weren't stupid enough to shaft him. Last year Melandri was supposed to be given treatment on par with the factory riders and we all know what happened. Nicky hardly seems to be a priority with HRC whilst on their one and only official team as it is!!!

He may not be gone from HRC because I think that he is going to turn his season around. This next race in Germany will be very telling on the improvements made on the bike and how Hayden is adapting. If he does well here, I think that he has a good shot in Laguna for a good result. But will Honda let him take away points from Pedrosa? They may just tune the engine down a bit if they fear he may do better??

Like I said at the begining of the season, I think that Honda has their plans pretty much mapped out. This has been the trend in the past with them and they don't look to be changing anytime soon. I think that Hayden is definitely gone from the HRC team. It would surprise me and I think a majority of the people if not only HRC wanted to keep him but that he would stay on there.

Its hard for me to imagine Nicky on another bike though Nicky in reds

Nice try at being funny but IF you know anything about motorcycles and the industry you would know first that the new Ducati's as of 2007 are all 50 percent less maintanence which is on par with the Jap bikes. Also the prices have been a bit lower especially for the first year of the new 1098 to $14,999, which really puts them closer in price to the jap bikes. The fact that Stoner won the championship unfortunatly had zero effect on the sale of Ducati's in the united states. If it did anything it just made all the Ducatisti very proud owners of their Ducs. Also when I had my 996s I rarely had to do anything service wise other than the basic oil change and such. I had a clutch replaced and put on some upgraded parts but that bike was just a friggin dream. Plus you get more chicks lookin and diggin the ducati than ANY of my friends that were on the Jap bikes. But that didn't matter none since my wife wouldn't approve of me having a girlfriend.

How many sport bike riders in the U.S. really care about racing? I'm asking this as an honest question as I'm not yet a member of the bike culture here.

Most riders I have spoken to here apparently have the desire to be on the biggest, baddest sport bike they can get...just to look cool. I've heard 600s referred to as "pussy" bikes many times.

you're hanging out with the wrong riders....we refer to those twats as "squids"

You have GOT to be kidding.

You know how much a Sport Classic 1000 is ? MSRP of USD$13000. That's thirteen thousand dollars.

And for that 13K, you get non-adjustable forks.

That's right. Non-adjustable forks on a motorcycle that costs 13 thousand dollars. in 2008.

Wrap your head around that for a minute.

Real gearhead's laugh and laugh.

Well here in the U.S. you basically have two types of riders
a)people who love bikes, and have an appreciation for them.

b)people who just think they're cool, and go out and buy one because they know someone who has one, or they see the guy riding a wheelie down the highway in 5:00 traffic (these may eventually grow to love bikes, but that wasnt the reason they got into them)

those in category A are more often the ones who have an interest in racing, but those in category B, seem to be the majority and "usually" have zero interest in racing.
again, just my opinion